Research indicators of railway transport activity in time series

Abstract

The urgency of the analyzed problem, connected with the trends description and the choice of the econometric model in unstable performance evaluation of transport, is due to the role of rail transport in the development of the Russian economy, as the bulk of goods and passengers are transported by rail. The purpose of the article is to describe the trends and the development of econometric models to assess and predict the performance of rail transport in Russia. The leading method of research is the analysis method of historical time series using adaptive models based on Chow test, which allows describing the trends in rail transport in Russia. The results of Chow test for the structural stability series of indicators of passenger and freight rail transport have shown the absence of a general trend in the historical time series. In such cases, to describe the trends the authors may not apply analytic alignment and it is advisable to use self-correcting recurrent models that take into account the importance of previous levels, and provide an opportunity to get reasonably accurate projections of future levels. Forecasting of considered indicators based on a two-parameter exponential smoothing model has showed further growth in turnover and a decrease in passenger rail transport. The data of this article may be useful for various levels of government in the development of economic development programs of Russia and its regions. © International Economic Society.