Natural population movement and COVID-19: data from Russia

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is highly infectious, so it paralyzed the health systems of many countries causing a high mortality rate. Official data on COVID-19 deaths at many sites are questioned, and the figures are considered several times higher than official data. In this sense, the objective of the study was to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the natural movement of the population and, in addition, to evaluate the real mortality rate from COVID-19 in Russia from the construction of predictive mortality models. The study used data from the World Health Organization and the Statistical Service of the Federal State of Russia; se used linear and polynomial models to construct mortality models. The study revealed an underestimation of the official COVID-19 death rate by 2.4 to 6.8 times, depending on the data source. There was a sharp increase in mortality in Russia in 2020 among people over 50 years of age, and with the increase in age, mortality increased. The main reasons for the sharp increase in mortality were coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, and respiratory diseases, among others.